A depressing analysis

I did what I told myself I wouldn't do, and looked at the best possible outcome for the Microsoft 1998 stock grants. These grants expire in less than 5 months, which means that you have to cash them out or get nothing. And "nothing" is definitely the worst-case scenario, but the best-case scenario would have been, of course, to cash out each 1/8 vesting at the highest possible price during the past seven years.

Turns out, if you had done this (I didn't), you would have made about 17 dollars per share ... compare that with the scenario where you hold on to all of it until the last minute (as I did): 1.80 / share.

So, holding the shares lost me about 10 times the profits. Wow.

Put in terms of my salary, that's like getting paid for a month of work compared with getting paid for almost one year of work. I'll try not to be bitter about the next year of work that I wouldn't otherwise have to do ... (oh boo hoo, poor me! ;-) )

Lesson learned: Buy low, sell high. Unfortunately, that's easier said than done!